AUD interest rate decision in sight
In the coming week we expect Aussie traders to focus on the release of RBA’s interest rate decision on Tuesday. Currently, market expectations are for the bank to cut rates and AUD OIS imply a probability of 92% for such a scenario to materialise. Yet AUD OIS also imply that the market expects the bank to proceed with two more rate cuts until the end of the year, once in November and once in December, hence the market expectations for the bank are clearly dovish. Should the bank cut rates as expected, and in its forward guidance signal that there are more rate cuts down the line, we may see AUD slipping. On the flip side, should the bank signal hesitation for further easing of tis monetary policy, thus contradicting the market’s dovish expectations, we may see the Aussie getting substantial support.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
- Support: 0.6375 (S1), 0.6130 (S2), 0.5910 (S3)
- Resistance: 0.6620 (R1), 0.6940 (R2), 0.7160 (R3)
AUD/USD edged higher over the past few days yet remained well within the boundaries set by the 0.6375 (S1) support line and the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line. We maintain a bias for the sideways motion of the pair to continue, yet RBA’s interest rate decision could alter that picture. Should the bulls take over , we may see the pair breaking the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 0.6940 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears be in charge of the pair’s direction we may see AUD/USD breaking the 0.6375 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 0.6130 (S2) support barrier.
July US CPI rates to be the next big test for the Dollar
In the coming week, we highlight the release of the US CPI rates for July and a possible acceleration of the rates could imply a persistence of inflationary pressures in the US economy thus easing the market’s current dovish expectations and thus support the USD. The effect could be magnified should also the PPI rates for the same month accelerate, thus providing more depth to the US inflationary pressures.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
- Support: 146.25 (S1), 142.20 (S2), 139.60 (S3)
- Resistance: 149.15 (R1), 151.20 (R2), 154.65 (R3)
USD/JPY seems to remain in a sideways motion after breaching the upward trendline that was guiding the pair. We maintain our bias for the sideways motion to be maintained at the current stage, given also that the RSI indicator remains near the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market. For a bearish outlook we would require the pair’s price action to break the 146.25 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 142.20 (S2) support level. Should a bullish outlook emerge, we may see the pair breaking the 149.15 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 151.20 (R2) resistance level.
NVIDIA Daily Chart
- Support: 170.50 (S1), 158.45 (S2), 146.40 (S3)
- Resistance: 183.75 (R1), 200.00 (R2), 215.00 (R3)
NVIDIA’s upward movement seems to have no end. Record high levels are being constantly broken and the bullish outlook is maintain as long as the upward trendline guiding it remains intact. Should the bulls remain in charge, we may see NVIDIA’s share price breaking the 183.75 (R1) resistance line and we set as the next possible target for the bulls the 200.00 (R2) resistance barrier. Should the bears take over, which we view as remote currently, we may see the share’s price breaking initially the prementioned upward trendline and continue to break the 170.50 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 158.45 (S2) support level.
WTI Cash Daily Chart
- Support: 59.85 (S1), 54.80 S2), 51.40 (S3)
- Resistance: 63.60 (R1), 68.40 (R2), 72.00 (R3)
WTI Cash has a clearcut downward movement and has broken the 63.60 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We maintain a bearish outlook for the commodity’s price and should the bears maintain control as expected, we may see WTI’s price action reaching if not breaching the 59.85 (S1) support level. Yet the downward motion seems to be dented as the price action is threatening the downward trendline guiding the commodity’s price. Should the bulls take over ,we may see WTI breaking the prementioned downward trendline, breaking the 63.60 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 68.40 (R2) resistance base.
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