US Q3 Final GDP rates
Thursday, 22nd of January
With December’s US CPI report out, we highlight as the next big test for the USD the release of the final US GDP rates for Q3 25 next Thursday. Should the rates accelerate showing a faster growth for the US economy than expected ,we may see the USD getting some support, while at the same time may weigh on gold’s price.
XAU/USD Daily Chart
- Support: 4550 (S1), 4380 (S2), 4245 (S3)
- Resistance: 4800 (R1), 5000 (R2), 5200 (R3)
Gold’s price remained relatively stable yesterday and in today’s Asian session. We maintain our bullish outlook for gold’s price given that the upward trendline guiding it remains intact, while the RSI indicator remained at the reading of 70, implying a continuance of the bullish market sentiment for the precious metal, yet also reminds traders that he precious metal is near overbought levels. The price action seems to have edged a bit lower than the upper Bollinger band which may provide some room for the bulls to play. Should the bulls maintain control, we set as the next possible target for the bulls the 4800 (R1) line. Should the bears take over we may see gold’s price breaking the 4550 (S1) line, breaking also the prementioned upward trendline and continue even lower to break the 4380 (S2) level.
Canadian CPI Rates for December
Monday, 19th of January
On a macroeconomic level, the contraction of the building permits, wholesale trade and manufacturing sales growth rates tends to weigh on the CAD somewhat. In the coming week, we highlight the release of Canada’s December CPI rates on Monday and a possible acceleration of the rates could enhance the market’s expectations for the BoC to remain on hold, thus providing support for the Loonie.
USD/CAD Daily Chart
- Support: 1.3880 (S1), 1.3720 (S2), 1.3550 (S3)
- Resistance: 1.4020 (R1), 1.4145 (R2), 1.4280 (R3)
USD/CAD seems to remain close to the 1.3880 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain a bullish predisposition of the pair as the upward trendline is still valid, yet the pair’s sideways motion of the past three days is putting the upward trendline to the test, hence we issue along the bullish outlook also a warning for a possible stabilisation of the pair. Also the RSI indicator remains above the reading of 50, implying a rather weak bullish market sentiment for the pair. Should the bulls remain in charge, we may see the pair aiming for the 1.4020 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline, the 1.3880 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.3720 (S2) support level.
WTI Daily Chart
- Support: 56.00 (S1), 51.40 (S2), 46.15 (S3)
- Resistance: 59.80 (R1), 62.40 (R2), 66.20 (R3)
WTI’s price action interrupted its upward movement with a sharp drop yesterday. The RSI indicator has also retreated near the reading of 50, implying a considerable easing of the bullish market sentiment. We tend to expect a possible stabilisation of the commodity’s price, yet fundamentals are very fluid and tend to weigh. Should the bears take over, we may see the commodity’s price breaking the 56.00 (S1) support line and thus pave the way for the 51.40 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we may see WTI’s price breaking the 59.80 (R1) resistance line, continue higher to break also the 62.40 (S2) resistance level, and even higher we note the 66.20 (R3) resistance barrier as the next possible target for the bulls.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
- Support: 157.80 (S1), 154.30 (S2), 151.50 (S3)
- Resistance: 161.90 (R1), 165.00 (R2), 168.00 (R3)
We normally do not recommend USD/JPY as a trading opportunity, yet as the fundamentals surrounding it (See Weekly outlook) are very fluid we may see it’s price action presenting wild swings in the coming week. The pair corrected lower in today’s Asian session, in today’s Asian session nearing the 157.80 (S1) support line. We maintain a bullish outlook for the pair given that the upward trendline guiding the pair remains intact, yet we note the easing bullish market sentiment for the pair as the RSI indicator has retreated from the highs of the reading of 70. Should the bulls maintain control as expected, we may see the pair start aiming for the distant 161.90 (R1) resistance level. On the flip side, should the bears take over, we may see USD/JPY breaking initially157.80 (S1) support line continue to break also the prementioned upward trendline in a first signal of an interruption of the upward movement and then continue to break also the 154.30 (S2) base.
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