Free Forex Trading Signals for the Week of September 28 – October 4, 2026: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold & BTCUSD Outlook
The week of September 28 – October 4, 2026 arrives with markets still adjusting to the Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate hike. The dollar has held a firm tone, EUR/USD and GBP/USD have drifted lower, USD/JPY has stabilised in a higher range, gold has continued its corrective phase, and Bitcoin has shown notable resilience. Attention now shifts to a heavy data calendar that will test whether the US economy retains enough momentum to keep further tightening on the table.
In my experience, the combination of PCE inflation, ADP, ISM Manufacturing and especially the September Non-Farm Payrolls report often sets the tone for the following month’s rate expectations. This is a classic “data-heavy” week where positioning can shift quickly. Below is my weekly forex forecast and free forex trading signals for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, and BTCUSD.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Key Events This Week and Impact on Forex
Here are the main catalysts for September 28 – October 4, 2026:
- Tuesday, September 29 – RBA Interest Rate Decision + US Consumer Confidence + JOLTS Job Openings
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver a rate hike. A hawkish decision would support the Australian dollar and risk sentiment. US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS will offer early clues on domestic demand and labour-market tightness ahead of the bigger employment reports. - Wednesday, September 30 – ADP Employment Change + PCE Price Index (August) + Personal Income & Spending + Final Q2 GDP
Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative and support the dollar. ADP provides a private-sector employment preview before Friday’s official jobs report. Final GDP and spending data round out the growth picture. - Thursday, October 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (September) + Initial Jobless Claims
The ISM Manufacturing Index will show whether the factory sector is holding up under higher rates. Soft data could temper dollar strength; a firm print would keep pressure on non-dollar currencies. - Friday, October 2 – US Non-Farm Payrolls (September) + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings
This is the clear high-impact event of the week. A strong payrolls number and stable unemployment rate would likely extend dollar strength and weigh on gold. A softer report could trigger a relief rally in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and precious metals.
China PMI data and European inflation releases add secondary layers of volatility, while ongoing geopolitical and energy-price developments remain background risks for risk sentiment and gold.
Overall Forex Market Trend for the Week
My base case is a data-driven week with a mild dollar bias heading into Friday’s NFP. The post-hike environment still favours the greenback on firm US numbers. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to remain under pressure unless European data or a soft US labour report provide relief. USD/JPY may continue to find support on dips if yields stay elevated. Gold is in a corrective phase and remains sensitive to real yields and risk-off flows. Bitcoin has shown relative strength and could benefit from any risk-on rebound, though it remains highly sensitive to dollar moves.
The decisive catalyst will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Until then, I expect cautious positioning and range-bound action with selective opportunities around the mid-week data.
Detailed Weekly Analysis & Signals
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis
Current Price: 1.1389
Technically, EUR/USD has extended its downtrend and is testing lower support. Immediate support sits at 1.1320–1.1350, with stronger support near 1.1280. Resistance is located at 1.1440–1.1470 and then 1.1520. The short-term structure remains bearish.
Fundamentally, firm US data (especially PCE and NFP) would keep pressure on the pair. Soft Eurozone readings or a weaker US jobs report could allow a corrective bounce. Rate differentials continue to favour the dollar.
Weekly Bias: Mildly Bearish
I prefer selling rallies while the dollar bias holds.
Suggested Signal (Swing):
- Entry zone: 1.1430–1.1460
- Take-Profit 1: 1.1360
- Take-Profit 2: 1.1320
- Stop-Loss: 1.1500
- Risk-Reward: approximately 1:1.8–2.0
GBP/USD Weekly Analysis
Current Price: 1.3244
Cable has also drifted lower and is consolidating near recent lows. Support is found at 1.3180–1.3210 and then 1.3140. Resistance sits at 1.3300–1.3330. The short-term bias remains cautious.
UK data will play a secondary role. Soft UK figures alongside firm US labour data would favour further downside. A stronger-than-expected UK backdrop or weak NFP could limit losses.
Weekly Bias: Mildly Bearish
Suggested Signal (Swing):
- Entry zone: 1.3280–1.3310
- Take-Profit 1: 1.3210
- Take-Profit 2: 1.3170
- Stop-Loss: 1.3350
- Risk-Reward: ~1:1.8–2.0
USD/JPY Weekly Analysis
Current Price: 157.27
USD/JPY is holding in the upper part of its recent range. Resistance sits near 158.50–159.00; support is located at 156.00–156.50 and then 155.00. The short-term structure remains constructive while US yields stay supported.
Firm US data and elevated rate expectations would favour further upside. Soft NFP or a more aggressive BoJ stance (via commentary) could trigger a pullback. Yen intervention risks remain a background factor at higher levels.
Weekly Bias: Mildly Bullish
I favour buying dips while the post-hike dollar bias holds.
Suggested Signal (Swing):
- Entry zone: 156.40–156.80
- Take-Profit 1: 158.20
- Take-Profit 2: 159.00
- Stop-Loss: 155.60
- Risk-Reward: ~1:1.8–2.0
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Outlook
Current Price: 4285.05
Gold has extended its corrective phase. Immediate support sits at 4230–4250, with stronger support near 4180–4200. Resistance is located at 4330–4350 and then 4400. The medium-term uptrend remains intact, but near-term pressure persists.
Higher real yields and firm US data would keep gold under pressure. Soft NFP or geopolitical escalation could support a rebound. I prefer buying controlled dips rather than chasing strength.
Weekly Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bearish near-term
Suggested Signal (Swing):
- Entry zone: 4240–4265
- Take-Profit 1: 4320
- Take-Profit 2: 4360
- Stop-Loss: 4200
- Risk-Reward: ~1:1.8–2.0
BTCUSD Weekly Signals
Current Price: 84986.95
Bitcoin has shown relative strength and is trading near recent highs. Support is located around 82,000–83,000; resistance sits near 87,000–88,500. Crypto remains highly sensitive to risk appetite, dollar strength and liquidity conditions.
A risk-on environment and softer dollar would support further gains. Firm US data and a stronger dollar could trigger profit-taking. Volatility around NFP is expected to be elevated.
Weekly Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish on dips
Suggested Signal (Swing):
- Prefer buying near 82,500–83,500 on stabilisation
- Take-Profit 1: 87,000
- Take-Profit 2: 89,000
- Stop-Loss: 80,500
- Risk-Reward: ~1:1.8–2.0
Weekly Signals Summary Table
| Pair/Symbol | Current Price | Weekly Bias | Suggested Entry | Take-Profit | Stop-Loss | Key Levels | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1389 | Mildly Bearish | 1.1430–1.1460 | 1.1360 / 1.1320 | 1.1500 | 1.1350 / 1.1450 | NFP & PCE dependent |
| GBP/USD | 1.3244 | Mildly Bearish | 1.3280–1.3310 | 1.3210 / 1.3170 | 1.3350 | 1.3210 / 1.3310 | US data residual risk |
| USD/JPY | 157.27 | Mildly Bullish | 156.40–156.80 | 158.20 / 159.00 | 155.60 | 156.50 / 158.50 | Yields & NFP sensitive |
| Gold | 4285.05 | Neutral-Bearish | 4240–4265 | 4320 / 4360 | 4200 | 4250 / 4350 | Buy dips, real yields risk |
| BTCUSD | 84986.95 | Neutral-Bullish | 82500–83500 | 87000 / 89000 | 80500 | 83000 / 87000 | High beta to risk & dollar |
Conclusion & Risk Management
This week’s free forex trading signals for September 28 – October 4, 2026 centre on US labour-market and inflation data. The dollar starts from a position of relative strength after the recent FOMC hike, which keeps EUR/USD and GBP/USD under pressure. USD/JPY may continue to find buyers on dips if yields remain supported. Gold is in a corrective phase and remains a buy-on-dips candidate, while Bitcoin shows relative resilience but stays exposed to dollar strength and risk-off moves.
Practical tips from the desk:
- Significantly reduce size ahead of Wednesday’s PCE and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
- Use predefined invalidation levels and avoid oversized positions through the high-impact releases.
- Keep risk per trade at 0.5–1% of account equity.
- Monitor US yields and the dollar index closely, as labour and inflation data will drive most directional moves this week.
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Final reminder: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex, gold, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade with money you can afford to lose and consider seeking independent financial advice.